Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Davis, Obama, and the White Vote

Last fall exit polls showed Barack Obama winning just 10% of the white vote in Alabama. Some experts have pointed to that and questioned whether Artur Davis is really a viable candidate for Governor of the state. It's safe to say that if he doesn't significantly improve on Obama's performance with that demographic he does have no chance, but he's starting out in a much better position.

Davis is already earning more than twice as much support among white voters than Obama received against all four potential opponents we tested him against last week. He gets 21% against Bradley Byrne, 24% against Tim James, 27% against Kay Ivey, and 30% against Roy Moore. And that's even with 28, 30, 35, and 21% of whites undecided in each of those respective contests.

We calculate that Davis will need to win about a third of the white vote to be elected Governor. He's certainly not there yet but given the good start he's off to and the fact that many are undecided- and thus not automatically writing off a black candidate- he has a decent chance.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You should probably take into effect the Bradley-Effect that STILL exists in Alabama.

Obama was polling at 19-21% in 3 SurveyUSA Alabama polls before the election and 19% in 2 Rasmussen polls.

Given the fact that Davis only starts with 30%, he will most likely not get more than 20% of Whites if the actual votes are counted on Election Day 2010.

Doubling Obama's share among Whites would be HUGE for Alabama.

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