Monday, June 29, 2009

More on Burr

Stuart Rothenberg weighs in today on Richard Burr's battle against us with the DC media establishment.

One odd critique made by unnamed 'GOP insiders' is that our samples are too Democratic and too urban.

North Carolina's voter registration breakdown by party is currently 46% Democrats, 32% Republicans, and 22% independents. The state's exit poll last year found the electorate to be 42% Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 27% independents. So we're looking at a Democratic advantage of somewhere between 11 and 14 points.

The breakdown of our most recent survey, the one that really seemed to set off the Burr camp, was 45% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 18% independents- in other words containing a smaller percentage of Democrats than there are registered and a higher percentage of Republicans than there are registered.

Recent polls conducted by two conservative groups- The Carolina Strategy Group, run by Burr's chief strategist, and the Civitas Institute have had samples that were 47% Democratic, 37% Republican, and 16% independents and 47% Democratic, 36% Republican, and 17% independents respectively.

Anyone who says the sample of our most recent Burr poll was too Democratic clearly knows nothing about North Carolina politics.

The criticism that our polls are too urban is a new one. Our most recent survey had 14% of respondents describing their community as urban. Let's operate on the assumption that the only 'urban' places in the state are Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and Winston-Salem. Those cities add up to a population of 1.7 million, about 19% of a state with a population just over 9 million. I really would be interested to see the metrics behind the claim that our samples are too urban.

Anyway Rothenberg's piece is a good read, check it out here.

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