Friday, June 5, 2009

Something I don't totally understand

In Tuesday's Republican primary for Governor in New Jersey 330,000 people voted.

Last year there were a little over 1.6 million votes for John McCain in the state. There were almost 2 million votes for Barack Obama in Virginia.

So why is turnout in Virginia on Tuesday expected to be so much less than it was in New Jersey this week?

Both primary contests have been pretty spirited and had millions of dollars poured into them. It's actually easier to vote in Virginia where primaries are completely open than in New Jersey where just Republicans and independents can vote in a GOP primary.

I understand there's more of a tradition of vibrant primaries for Governor in New Jersey than Virginia but it still seems amazing to me that they would exceed the turnout of 200,000 at least one campaign is expecting by 65%.

We're already on the record saying we think turnout will be more around 300,000 with the caveat that projecting hard numbers of voters is not really what we do, but most folks seem to think turnout will be lower than that.

Why is there so little interest in Virginia compared to New Jersey? I'm interested in the thoughts of those who would understand this better than me.

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