Monday, June 15, 2009

Divergent Wisconsin Polls

Obviously our Wisconsin poll today shows pretty different numbers from a similar one conducted by Research 2000 last week that showed Jim Doyle beating the same two opponents for reelection.

There doesn't seem to be any weighting disparity to explain the difference: our sample at 42-32-26 is actually more Democratic than the Daily Kos one was at 39-34-27.

The two polls' numbers for Doyle among Democrats are nearly identical- they found 64% with a favorable opinion of him and we found 61% approving of him.

Where they go in different directions is among Republicans and independents. We find virtually no Republicans- just 6%- approving of the job Doyle is doing while they find 23% looking on him favorably. And while they find only 51% of independents with an unfavorable opinion of him, we find 69% in disapproval of his job performance.

That still doesn't answer who's right or wrong and with the election as far away as it is we won't soon get an answer to that. It does seem worth mentioning that SurveyUSA's most recent numbers for Doyle were similar to ours, with only 35% approving of his work compared to 59% who did not. Perhaps their client in Wisconsin will get them to look at the matches with Scott Walker and Mark Neumann sometime in the near future.

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