Monday, June 29, 2009

McCrory in the 8th District?

Roll Call reports today that Republicans might like for Pat McCrory to run against Larry Kissell in the 8th District next year.

One thing the story misses is that McCrory, you know, doesn't live in the 8th District.

But putting that aside, how might he fare? Well don't expect a big home field advantage in Charlotte. There are 29 8th District precincts within Mecklenburg County and last year Bev Perdue won 26 of them against McCrory in the race for Governor, a heavy contributor to Perdue's surprise victory on the mayor's home turf.

Mecklenburg County actually only contains the third largest number of votes in the district. The most come from Cabarrus County, where McCrory did very well, and the second most come from Cumberland County, where McCrory crashed.

So there are strengths and weaknesses in a possible McCrory campaign- the greatest of which is obviously the extent to which voters would be willing to support a candidate who either didn't live in the district or moved into it for the sole purpose of seeking office. One person who I imagine would be happy- at least privately- about such a candidacy is Perdue because either McCrory would be safely in Washington instead of seeking a rematch in 2012, or he would be pretty damaged goods after losing two elections in a row.

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