Thursday, October 22, 2009

Turnout and 2010

I've been talking ad nauseam perhaps about the fact that very few Obama voters are leaving the Democratic fold but that the party's main problem right now is one of engagement and motivation.

Here's a perfect example from the national generic Congressional numbers we're releasing tomorrow:

Only 6% of Obama voters say they plan to vote Republican next year- that's even less than the 7% of McCain voters who intend to vote Democratic.

If turnout patterns next year are anything like 2006 and 2008 Democrats have a perfectly fine election year. Of course if Democratic voters don't show up Republicans will make strong gains. It's 13 months away but already I feel safe saying the 2010 election is going to be more about turnout than persuasion. Public opinion is pretty darn static right now.

1 comment:

Robert Beal said...

Yes, well, turnout matters.

So does legitimacy; e.g., the 40% of the (mostly have-not) population that isn't registered.

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