Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Obama in New Jersey

Barack Obama's approval rating with likely voters for the fast approaching New Jersey Gubernatorial election comes down at 46% this month.

That might make it sound like Obama's popularity has crashed in a state where he won 57% of the vote last year. But it's more a reflection of the fact that many of his supporters are not planning to come out and vote for Governor right now. The likely electorate in New Jersey reports having voted for Obama by a margin of only 49-45, in contrast to his actual 57-42 victory in the state.

That speaks to a potential secret weapon for Jon Corzine in the closing days of the campaign- there are thousands upon thousands more Democrats out there sitting on their hands right now than there are Republicans. If Corzine can do anything to get more of those folks motivated and out to the polls and shift the 2009 electorate from one where 49% of people voted for Obama last year to one where more like 53-55% supported Obama he's going to end up pulling this one out.

There are slightly more McCain supporters (8%) who now approve of Obama's performance than there are people who voted for the President last fall (7%) but now disapprove of the job he's doing.

56% of New Jersey voters think Obama did not deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize, while only 30% think he earned the honor. Public opinion on that predictably breaks heavily along party lines, with 57% of Democrats but only 21% of independents and 4% of Republicans believing he should have won.

46% of respondents think that Obama's winning decreases the prestige of the award while 12% now think it's more prestigious and 42% don't think his victory makes a difference.

New Jersey's Senators continue to sport pretty mediocre approval ratings, with Frank Lautenberg at 36/45 and Robert Menendez at 34/45.

Full results here

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