Thursday, October 1, 2009

Republican non-voters

Are the Republican nonvoters coming back?

Last year after the election some GOP pundits claimed the election was an anomaly because many of the party's voters unenthusiastic about John McCain decided they weren't going to just settle for the lesser of two evils and stayed home.

I don't know if that's really true or not, but we do have some evidence that indicates it might be. On our Virginia poll this week folks who said they 'weren't sure or didn't remember' who they voted for President last year supported Bob McDonnell by a margin of 68-26. And on our last New Jersey poll those same folks were going 44-23 for Chris Christie.

I'm sure most everyone who actually turned out for President last year remembers who they voted for so this might be an indication of Republicans who stayed home last year coming back. Or it might just be people not wanting to admit they voted for someone who lost. This is going to be an interesting thing to follow going on into 2010.


Anonymous said...


Missouri seems to be a good pick for next time. Obama is at 44/54 in the state according to SurveyUSA. Or Iowa, where Obama is underwater for the second straight month.

Take a look at what your counterpart came up with:

Alabama: 37/61
California: 62/33
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 39/57
Kentucky: 39/57
Minnesota: 55/40
Missouri: 44/54
New Mexico: 50/45
New York: 63/33
Oregon: 59/37
Virginia: 49/48
Washington: 53/42
Wisconsin: 47/47

Hopeful in NJ said...

I'm not sure I understand this -- in your NJ release, 7% of "likely voters" say "someone else/Don't Remember" So you have the third party voters mixed in, right?

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