Friday, October 30, 2009

Some hard numbers in Virginia and New Jersey

Here are some hard numbers on turnout issues for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey.

Let's estimate 2,000,000 voters in Virginia. Our poll this week found the electorate there splitting 48-44 for McCain based on reported voting behavior for last year.

That means 960,000 McCain voters and 880,000 Obama voters.

Last year Obama won 1.96 million voters and McCain won 1.725 million.

That represents a decline of 1,080,000 Obama voters from last year to a drop of only 765,000 McCain voters.

Let's estimate 2,200,000 voters in New Jersey. We found the electorate there splitting 51-44 for Obama.

That means 1,120,000 Obama voters and 970,000 McCain voters.

Last year Obama won 2.22 million votes and McCain won 1.61 million.

That represents a decline of 1,100,000 Obama voters to only 640,000 McCain votes.

Maybe those numbers will improve some over the weekend- and Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine certainly aren't the best candidates- but if that pattern continues on into next year Republicans will win back the House. Democratic voters need to wake up or the consequences will be serious in 2010.


Unknown said...

So the Dems would have been better
focusing on jobs, limiting health care reform to just insurance company regulation. I'm afraid the health care debate is sucking the oxygen out of everything else.

And climate change can wait. It's jobs and the economy first.

Anonymous said...

Stop the Socialism, kill the health bill...or it's a death for Democrats. AMERICANS do not want anything the Dems are feeding us..if they ram health care down our throats,they are finished.

Jonathan said...

I actually got polled! I figured out it was ppp after the first few questions; they were pretty typical. I just hope I didn't put in my answer for governor wrong... I actually picked up on a rotary phone, and had to switch to another one, so I missed the order to answer. And now I can be sure you're not cooking the books! Oh wait, that was Strategic Vision. Burn!

Unknown said...

Interesting set of numbers.

I am in Ohio -- I know several Obama voters who wont consider voting for any Democrat again because they don't agree with the liberal agenda.

It's funny how people always slam the right-wing of the GOP, while the left-wing of the Dems is equally as bad...

Anonymous said...

Mike, these Obama voters knew EXACTLY what they were getting when they voted for him. There was nothing hidden there.

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