Friday, October 23, 2009

Notes on Palin

When it comes to the 2012 Presidential election, Republican voters might be their own worst enemies.

That's because Sarah Palin continues to be by far the most popular candidate with the party's base. 72% have a favorable opinion of her, compared to just 56% for Mike Huckabee and 54% for Mitt Romney.

The problem is that she's also the least popular candidate with Democrats and independents. 79% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of her compared to 48% for Romney and 42% for Huckabee. If the GOP nominated her it would basically cut off the possibility of any crossover support, whereas there are at least still a lot of open minds when it comes to the party's other leading hopefuls.

It's a similar story with independents. 48% have a negative opinion of Palin to 28% for Romney and 27% for Huckabee.

It was also interesting to note in the poll results that while Romney and Huckabee both held Obama under 50%, and even Tim Pawlenty kept him right at 50%, his best share of the vote was 52% when matched against Palin.

It might feel good in January or February of 2012 for Republicans to nominate Palin, but it doesn't look like it would feel too good come November.

Another interesting thing to watch on the Palin front moving forward: would she run as a third party conservative alternative if someone too moderate for her tastes was nominated in 2012? It doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility after her NY-23 endorsement.


Josh Putnam said...

Why not throw her in as a third party choice in next month's 2012 poll? Rasmussen did that in July and found her cutting into Republican and Democratic support.

Obama: 44
Romney: 33
Palin: 16

It would be nice to see how she affects the Huckabee/Pawlenty/Gingrich numbers.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry Donald Duck could run against Obama and win. We are going to have another Carter/Reagan election. People will change back to vote GOP to vote. Obama is going to lose big time. He may get Ill,Mass, NY, California and Maine but that is the best scenario for him. NY and California are fed up with taxes. Everybody knows when you vote Republican,taxes are low.

Anonymous said...

Mitt is just the most qualified. He has his age, his years of knowledge as being a young 63...He has just by living longer than any of the others gained more experience..Mitt made it in the private sector. Mitt is a leader, a team player, and a proven entity..He is most Presidential. He is SMART.. He is genuine, and he has worn jeans and gotten dirty, and yes messed his hair.People, wake up. He is an EAGLE...Romney2012...

Anonymous said...

Voted for Romney last time and will this time.

Jayant Reddy said...

I think it's fine to test poll for the 2012 GOP Prez nomination now, but you're badly overinterpreting the results. All you're really getting from the results is a combination of name recognition and general favorability. No one is thinking about who to vote for in 2012, so you're not getting valid responses on voting preferences.

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