The New Hampshire Senate numbers we'll have coming out this week (general election Tuesday, primary Wednesday) are a great example of the double edged sword that is a Sarah Palin endorsement. In the short term Kelly Ayotte has opened a wide lead in the Republican primary. But the Palin endorsement could be hurting Ayotte's chances of winning in the general election.
51% of New Hampshire voters overall say they're less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Palin to just 26% who say a Palin endorsement would make them more inclined to be supportive. The disparity is even larger when it comes to moderate voters- 14% of them are positively swayed by a Palin nod while 65% say her support is more likely to turn them against one of her preferred candidates.
When we polled New Hampshire in April we found Ayotte's favorability numbers with moderates on positive ground at 32/27, something very unusual for a Republican candidate. Now in the wake of the Palin endorsement that is no longer the case- 27% of moderates see Ayotte favorably while 46% see her unfavorably- a 24 point drop in her favorability spread over the last three months.
Ayotte's embrace of Palin seemed to suggest she was more worried about the primary than the general election and that calculus may work out for her in the end but tomorrow's numbers will show her match up with Paul Hodes the closest of any poll so far in 2010.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
13 comments:
do research 2000 "Polls" count
Tom, did you get enough responses for nh-01 and nh-02?
You have to be in it to win it - so how is it a double edged sword when she wins the primary? You can't really thing people are going to take Palin's endorsement to the polls and make a decision base soley on that for the general election? (some may - but it will be between the 2 candidates and not some endorsement from Palin which will determine the outcome). Why are Democrats always trying to marginalize Palin - it's alomost funny to watch. She has a HUGE impact on who wins the primary - and few politicians are dumb enough to make Palin's endorsement in a primary their message to voters? palin smartly disappears after the primary - but you're right when Nikki Haley wins the Govenorship it will be Palin's double edge sword.
"Tom, did you get enough responses for nh-01 and nh-02?"
We didn't poll the congressional races.
Finally! Some information about the primary! It's odd that nobody's released anything from May until now on the topic, but if Ayotte has a distinct lead then it makes some sense. Her challengers wouldn't want to release numbers that show them behind, and she wouldn't want to release numbers that convince her challengers to start attacking her in earnest. Binnie and Bender have been doing a lot of getting-to-know-you ads, but they'll have to start going after Ayotte seriously if they want to have any chance.
will we get a nh gov poll soon
Hmmm PPP how did your NY 23 polling turn out? You guys always mess up and I am sure you had Obama leading Hillary in your New Hamshire poll in 2008.I wouldnt trust a PPP poll that is obviously run by democrats,as far as I could throw all of you guys.I will wait untill the only poll that matters is announced in Nov.Keep polling Palin,and try and figure out why she is still in the mix big time.Hmmm could it be because you and the media are not trusted period anymore by anyone with half a brain?
@Anonymous (6:00)
Im guessing thats why PPP is ranked as one of the best pollsters in the nation, and they had better numbers than anyone on MA-Sen, VA- and NJ- Gov, and the SC-Gov R primary? Sure, they messed up one house poll. During the time they were polling, the Republican nominee dropped out and right before they finished, she endorsed the Democrat. That's why they were off there.
Let's see... Why would people distrust the media? Probably because of conservative scumbags like Breitbart and O'Keefe, who're more interested in creating a storyline than in reporting anything remotely resembling the truth. If you turn off Fox, you might be surprised to find out just how much more interested the rest of the media is in reporting reality rather than pushing narratives.
Palin needs to hurry up and endorse Mike Castle in Delaware. He needs her help.
Hahahahahahahah.
'.I wouldnt trust a PPP poll that is obviously run by democrats,'
Yeah, that's why they overestimated the percentage of the CONSERVATIVE PARTY candidate in NY-23 by about a gazillion points.
Get your talking points straight, idiot.
NRH
Maybe, just maybe, if you would crawl out of your dark little ideological hole that you're now living in and tuned into Fox News for a bit, you might realize (if thats even possible) just how ignorant you are to what's actually going out here in the real world. You, my friend, don't have a clue. Why do you suppose that Fox is considered more trustworthy (by far) than any other news outlet out there - and why ONLY 9% of Americans now think that the news media, in general, is credible? DUH! What an idiot!!!
If Fox News reflects unbiased reality, I'm Barbara Bush, and not the hot one.
Post a Comment