Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Five Numbers showing why Obama can win North Carolina

-41. That's his lead among people who didn't vote in 2004 (65-24) They're providing his current small lead in the state, as McCain is up 49-48 with those who did vote in the last election.

-17. That's the numbers of points independents have shifted from 2004. Obama leads 51-39 with them after Bush won them by a modest amount last time.

-13. That's the difference PPP found in an August report between how natives and non-natives of North Carolina are planning to vote for President. The newbies are for Obama, and they're comprising a larger and larger portion of the electorate.

-59. That's the percentage of North Carolinians naming the economy as their top issue. The higher that number's gotten, the better Obama has matched up with McCain as fewer voters are making their choices on things like values issues and immigration that tend to benefit Republicans.

-10. That's the percentage of people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 now supporting Obama. It may not sound like a lot, but if not for those folks the new voters Obama's bringing out wouldn't be nearly enough. Not surprisingly 79% of these voters cite the economy as their top issue.

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