Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Kerry/McCain Voters

You wouldn't think there would be many folks who voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 given Obama's large national lead right now, but in four key battleground states we recently polled at least 6% of respondents who said they voted for Kerry in 2004 are now going for McCain this year.

In Florida 11% of Kerry supporters are now voting Republican. In Ohio and North Carolina it's 8% and in Virginia it's 6%.

The strongest common theme about these Kerry/McCain voters across the four states if that they're men. In North Carolina 67% are, in Virginia it's 60%, Ohio 57%, and Florida 51%. Perhaps they're national security voters who appreciated both McCain and Kerry's military service.

What they are not is monolithically white. In Virginia 26% of them are black. In North Carolina 16% are. In Florida 20% are Hispanic. So the logical conclusion that they're all racists doesn't bear itself out.

Most of them are Democrats- 61% in Florida and 51% in Ohio for instance. Those two were supposed to be big Puma states but given that the Kerry/McCain voters are overwhelmingly men I don't think that's necessarily what's driving it.

Obviously a lot more Bush voters are going to Obama than the other way around, and Obama has a huge edge with new voters but it's interesting to note that there are those bucking the trends this year. Probably not enough to put McCain over the top though.


ttfrenzy said...

hmmm thats interesting, id probably peg them at national security one issue voters.

when will the georgia numbers be released?

Greg Kaleka said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Greg Kaleka said...

typo in the first paragraph. replace "Barack Obama in 2008" with "John McCain in 2008"

Tom Jensen said...

O man, thanks for the correction. This campaign really needs to be over!

Fwiffo said...

Are they veterans/military? That would explain the male dominance, preference for Kerry over Bush, preference for McCain over Obama, the racial makeup, etc.

Also, are they pro-life? Kerry was very pro-choice, but he was squishy about it when he talked about it, whereas Obama has been full-throated in his defense of choice. Men and minorities tend to be more pro-life.

Are they pro-gun? The NRA has blasted both Kerry and Obama as anti-gun, but Kerry made a big show of being a hunter, whereas Obama has made the "clinging" comment and is not remotely a hunter.

Anonymous said...

How very annoying to have no data on why these former Kerry voters are voting for McCain.

Unknown said...

People who like divided government?

It would be interesting if the older side of the Kerry/McCain voters voted for Perot.

Web Statistics