Tuesday, October 28, 2008

NC 8: Top of the Ticket

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 45

John Kerry lost this district by 8 points in 2004, so Obama's lead represents a 14 point gain relative to that, pretty similar to what he will need statewide if he's going to win here. The candidates were tied when PPP last surveyed the district in August. Obama is up 45-40 with independents.

Bev Perdue 47
Pat McCrory 46
Michael Munger 3

This represents a four point gain for Perdue since trailing McCrory by three in the district two months ago. You can argue either way whether this is a good result for her. Mike Easley won the district 53-45 in 2000, so she's running well behind him. At the same time, there is a lot of Charlotte media market in this district so in that sense she's hanging strong.

Kay Hagan 51
Elizabeth Dole 42
Christopher Cole 4

There's not much arguing whether this is a good performance for Hagan or not. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002 so this signifies a 12 point reversal. Hagan's winning independents 42-36 and doing a better job with white voters than any of the other Democratic candidates in the district. These numbers bode well for her statewide prospects.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Tom, any sense if these numbers represent an improvement from your last presidential North Carolina poll?

Tom Jensen said...

Well he's doing 14 points better in the 8th district than Kerry did so if he's doing 14 points better statewide that would put him up by 2, pretty much the same as the poll we put out yesterday.

Anonymous said...

For a Democrat poll to have Perdue up by one appears to be a huge factor in McCrory's favor. I almost fainted when N/O endorsed McCrory.I think we are going to have a Republican governor.

Anonymous said...

14 pt shift to Obama in NC-8 from 2004 Kerry numbers minus 12 pt margin for Bush in NC overall = +2 Obama overall in NC

Anonymous said...

The problem is who has not voted and who will vote in the next seven days.

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