Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Senate race tightens

Kay Hagan 46
Elizabeth Dole 44
Christopher Cole 5

Elizabeth Dole's been throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Kay Hagan for weeks now, and it finally appears to be having some impact. Hagan's lead in this race is now back within the margin of error for the first time since mid-September.

The movement here is similar to that seen in the Presidential race. Hagan is holding steady with an 11 point lead among independents, but Dole has made some in roads with Democrats, who now report supporting Hagan by a 75-16 margin, down from 79-12 last week. In her first race Dole benefited from a lot of support with conservative Democrats and she'll need to keep a lot of those voters in her camp to win reelection.

The good news for Hagan? Voters who are undecided for Senate overwhelmingly support Barack Obama for President, 50-27. She just needs to make sure they vote the rest of their ballot when they come out to vote Democratic for the top office, and she'll probably win.

One other note here: Libertarian Christopher Cole continues to poll very well in this race even as Bob Barr has become pretty much a complete non-factor. I think it is entirely possible that he will get a decent percentage of the vote, benefiting from folks disgusted with the mudslinging between Hagan and Dole. This will doubtless tempt pundits who don't do their research to declare that Cole is serving as as a spoiler for the Republican Dole, but the reality is that Cole's supporters go 40-36 for Barack Obama for President. Thus it would appear he is most likely taking equally from Hagan and Dole.

Full results here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I am trying to make up my mind to vote for Kay Hagan. Every time I get close, she starts the blame game. Like most voters I am sick of it. I want to know what her plan of action is going to be.I know about Bush and I know about Dole. I do not know about Kay.

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