Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Obama holds a small lead in Indiana

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 46

Benefiting from overwhelming support among voters who didn't cast a ballot for President in 2004, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.

New voters are going for Obama at a clip of 68-24, allowing him to overcome a 48-45 lead John McCain has with folks who did vote in the last Presidential election.

Obama has a 49-39 advantage with Hoosier state independents, and is doing almost as good a job as McCain of holding the support of voters within his own party. Obama is winning 84% of Democrats while McCain gets 86% of Republicans.

Obama is winning 89% of the black vote and remaining competitive enough among white voters to keep the overall lead. McCain is winning whites 51-42.

Just how important is the economy to Obama's chances in Indiana? 60% of the state's voters list it as their top issue, and Obama has a 59-34 lead with those folks. As a segment of the whole electorate that means Obama has a 15 point lead in the overall poll based on folks most concerned with the economy. Among respondents who list anything else as their biggest issue, McCain is up 13.

George W. Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004, and Obama's gains since then are coming from pretty much every group of the electorate.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

AAs are 89% for Obama. Not a chance. Anything less than 95% is bogus.

Sreenu said...

So that means FL is either a tie or slightly in favor of McCain :-(

Tom Jensen said...


1) There might be more black Republicans than you think.

2) If Obama was getting 95% of the black vote in this poll it would make a one point difference in the overall poll.

Comments like yours are why most pollsters don't deal with the public.

Anonymous said...

Also, don't forget the large margin of error on that 89% figure. The smaller the minority, the larger the margin of error when trying to break them down into who's voting for whom.

Sreenu said...

Tom, this poll shows those who were polled favored Bush over Kerry 52-38 in 2004 where as the real margin for Bush was 60-39. Do you think that might introduce some error in the results of your poll?

Tom Jensen said...

I don't think everyone who voted for Bush is necessarily taking responsibility for it. We ask that question not so that we can weight our polls to the results from it, but so that we can see more clearly what demographic groups are showing the most movement relative to 2004.

But I also think it's possible some Repubs who know the election is lost may stay home this year.

Anonymous said...

Taking everything into consideration, this is a fantastic poll for Obama in a state that has been very red in recent Presidential elections. Turnout will be crucial. The fact that Obama has invested resources here while McCain has not gives me hope that we may see this one flip on November 4.

Sreenu said...

Thanks Tom, I agree with what you wrote :-)

Anonymous said...

I have to find it interesting how almost every IN poll this year has had the party breakdowns about equal. In 2004, the Republicans had a 14-point party ID advantage.

I also have to find it interesting how there's a lot of agreement by pollsters that the presidential race is very close in IN, but the gubernatorial race results are all over the place. Come election day, at least a few pollsters will have egg on their face...

Anonymous said...

Party ID is laughable.

Anonymous said...

To marine core soldier- i jizz in the ladies when the marines are gone. Happened last year

Anonymous said...

Is there a difference between Obama and McCain in how firm the support is? How large share of their respective supporters say that they could change their minds?

Tom Jensen said...

93% of McCain supporters are firm, 92% of Obama supporters are.

Anonymous said...

I thought you couldn't poll Indiana because robocalls aren't allowed there. Did that change?

thisniss said...

There's something about IN and NC as a pair. Since their corresponding primaries, which proved decisive for Obama's victory (essentially putting him past the point in the delegate race where HC could catch up on elected delegates), I've expected a similar role for these two states in the general. I don't necessarily think that they will be "decisive," because I still think Obama can win a large victory (possibly an electoral landslide). But I do think than NC & IN are his "fire door," and that, just as in the primaries, they offer him a path to victory that routes around OH and FL.

I realize that Obama didn't win IN in the primary. I'm not sure that he'll win it in the general. I sort of expect a narrow loss again. But I think that keeping IN as close as they have for as long as they have offers the Obama campaign the opportunity to weigh their final campaign days. If they are tanking in OH, they throw major weight into pulling of IN. It's not a one-for-one EV trade, but it goes a long way towards offsetting that loss when added to Obama's other red state flips. NC is the equivalent with FL. And the brilliant part is that McCain was fighting for OH & FL, but paid no attention to IN & NC until the last couple of weeks when it was already too late to do more than play defense.

Anonymous said...

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