Saturday, October 18, 2008

West Virginia: McCain +8

John McCain 50
Barack Obama 42

Over the last month every time PPP has conducted a survey in a battleground state at least 60% of the electorate has named the economy as its top issue, and that has propelled Barack Obama into the lead in each of those places.

West Virginia is a different story. Just 54% of its citizens state the economy as their biggest concern. Coming in second at 15% with the state's voters? Moral and family values. And among those values voters John McCain has an 87-7 lead. Among all voters who list anything else as their top issue Obama leads by four in the state. But the 12 point margin McCain is racking up with them propels his overall lead there. Hence the challenge for Democrats in trying to take WV.

One of the things that has fueled Obama's success in nearby states like Virginia and North Carolina is conservative Democrats who often vote Republican for President choosing to stick with their party this year because they're prioritizing the economy over disagreements with national Democrats on issues like abortion and gay marriage. But Obama is winning Democratic voters just 62-29 in West Virginia. He's also down 53-36 with independents.

Although West Virginia is going to be a challenge for Democrats, there are some shifts since 2004 that bode well for Obama's chances. Those are discussed further here.

Someone sent us a second West Virginia sample so we'll poll it again the week before the election and see if the picture has gotten any better there for Obama as he puts more resources into the state.

Full results here.


Statistikhengst said...

Uh, I think you mean the title of this post should be "Obama +8" and not "McCain +8". Either that, or you accidentally reversed your numbers.

Tom Jensen said...

Looks to me like I got it right both places...

Anonymous said...

I was comparing your results to the 2004 exit polls, and noticed that something is very wrong with either your sample or the 2004 exit poll.

In 2004, West Virginians lived:
6% in small cities
7% in suburbs
19% in small towns
68% in rural areas

In your sample, its:
9% cities
18% suburbs
36% small towns
38% rural.

andgarden said...

Thanks Tom, we were clamoring for this.

Tom Jensen said...


If you read the post above this you will find the answer to your question:

1) The way people describe the community they live in on our poll might not match the definitions the exit polls use.

2) There were a lot of problems with the 2004 exit polls.

Anonymous said...

Tom, don't listen to anon.

He's a racist who's extremely frightened by the prospect of an Obama presidency and a black man in the WH.

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