Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Governor's race still close as can be

Bev Perdue 45
Pat McCrory 44
Michael Munger 4

Not a whole let new to say here. The candidates have been within three points of each other every time we've polled this race since Labor Day.

Some people think independents are helping McCrory stay in this race, and while they do support him by a 41-37 margin, the bigger issue for Perdue is that she's losing too many voters from her own party. While McCrory has the support of 82% of Republican voters, Perdue's only at 74% with folks in her party. If she brings that closer to 80% she'll probably win.

Perdue is doing a good job of lining up the black vote- she is now polling at 82% with them. But McCrory is winning a full quarter of the white Democratic vote.

Perdue would also be in better shape if she was as popular with young voters as running mates Barack Obama and Kay Hagan. Each of them have a 30+ point lead with voters under 30, while Perdue is only up 11 with them. If she can get more of trickle down from the top of the ticket her standing will improve.

This one seems likely to be close to the end.

Full results here.

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