Monday, May 4, 2009

Convention Effects

If there was any news out of North Carolina Democrats' Jefferson/Jackson festivities over the weekend it was that Bev Perdue wants the Democratic convention to come to Charlotte in 2012.

That would certainly be a great thing for North Carolina, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it ensuring another Obama victory in the state.

When the convention was in Denver last year Barack Obama certainly showed marked improvement in his performance compared to John Kerry in 2004, winning the state by nine points after George W. Bush had won it by five.

That 14 point difference wasn't all that unusual for the region though. Neighboring Utah saw an 18 point improvement for Obama and New Mexico saw a 16 point one. Other states sharing a significant amount of border mileage with Colorado- Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming- saw shifts of 10, 8, and 7 points respectively.

So Colorado's shift was pretty much in character with its surroundings. Also, we asked Colorado voters right after the convention what impact having it in their state had and only 15% said it influenced their vote, with 6% saying it made them more likely to support Obama but 9% saying it made them less likely to do so.

It would be great to have the convention here. But I don't expect it would make a real impact at the polls in November- convention siting as a consideration for the electoral map is an overblown phenomenon in my opinion.

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