Thursday, May 7, 2009

Virginia: Looking at the Undecideds

Digging deeper into the undecided voters in the Virginia Democratic primary for Governor it seems pretty clear that ambiguity toward all the contenders is more responsible for their lack of decisiveness than having to make hard choices between multiple appealing candidates.

Among the undecided voters 81% have no opinion of Creigh Deeds, 79% have no opinion of Brian Moran, and 68% have no opinion of Terry McAuliffe. That's why mass media over the last month of the campaign will be so crucial in determining who is able to win over all these voters to whom the candidates are pretty much a blank slate.

The undecideds continue to be disproportionately women. While they account for 58% of the overall likely electorate they make up 65% of the voters who haven't made up their mind yet. Terry McAuliffe has taken a solid lead with females but the all male field still seems to have a fair number of them looking for a candidate.

The other thing that stands out right now in the undecideds is how few of them are from northern Virginia. While 29% of all voters are from there, only 20% of the undecideds are. That doesn't bode particularly well for Brian Moran's chances moving forward as he's behind by ten points despite having already locked up much of his home base.

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