Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Kissell Update

So Mike Minter, who we didn't think would be a very good candidate anyway, isn't going to run against Larry Kissell.

The most interesting thing about his announcement was his opening the door for Robin Hayes to try to reclaim his old seat.

I actually think that would be the best potential outcome for Republicans here, although not necessarily for a very flattering reason. The truth is that there are 64 Congressional districts held by Democrats that voted more Republican at the Presidential level than NC-8 last year. This really is not a first tier pick up opportunity for them. So they might just be better off running Hayes, who can self fund, than having to spend any of their own money here. If it's not Hayes this could very well end up being Heath Shuler redux, where he won a blowout victory against a weak opponent in his first reelection campaign after Republicans failed to come up with anyone better.

It's worth remembering though that Hayes got plowed last year- a double digit defeat that can't be pinned solely on the Obama factor- and that Republicans who had been defeated in 2006 and tried to get their old seats back in 2008 laid an egg, going 0 for 5.

Someone could come out of nowhere- Kissell himself did- but right now the freshman Congressman is sitting pretty.

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