Thursday, July 9, 2009

A key fact in Virginia

Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell are a pretty popular pair of candidates, so much so that 14% of the electorate in Virginia has a positive opinion of both of them. That might not sound like a lot but in this highly polarized nation that's actually pretty good. In New Jersey less than 4% of voters like both the Democratic and Republican choices for Governor.

Here's an amazing fact about those folks who like both candidates: they support McDonnell right now by a margin of 69-25. If the race was tied among those voters it would be tied overall.

Getting the Obama coalition- African Americans and young voters- out to the polls may be the biggest key to victory for Deeds this fall but when it comes to winning over swing voters these are the folks he needs to persuade.

These voters like Mark Warner (60% approval compared to 57% overall) and Tim Kaine (52% approval compared to 49% overall) more than the electorate as a whole. But they like Barack Obama (39% approval compared to 48% overall) less. 41% are independents, 36% are Republicans, and 23% are Democrats.

In other words these are the same sorts of folks whose votes were crucial to the Democratic victories in the last two races for Governor. And they do like Creigh Deeds, they just aren't committed to voting for him right now. His ability to either convince them that they like him more than they do McDonnell- or that they shouldn't actually like McDonnell- will be key to his prospects for victory this fall.

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