Monday, July 20, 2009

Obama with Democrats by region

Last week a commenter asked me about Barack Obama's approval numbers among Democrats by region. Instinctively you would expect them to be at their worst in the south, but that is not the case.

He's at 87% there, followed by 85% in the midwest, and 81% in both the northeast and the west.

That doesn't necessarily surprise me. On this most recent poll a plurality of Democrats from the south were African Americans, and they are much more likely to be steady in their approval of Obama than white Democrats. Overall 79% of white Democrats nationally give Obama good marks, while 99% of black Democrats do.

We've also been more likely to find Obama's approval outperforming his share of the vote from last year in southern states. In Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas we've found him running 4-8 points ahead of his ballot box performance, and tomorrow Louisiana goes on that list. At this point that quintet of states are the only ones where we find him doing more than a point better than he did in the fall.

Of course when you look at independents in the south it's quite a different story- just 42% approval. And among Republicans it's just 7%.


Anonymous said...

But is it a safe assumption that Obama is trailing both Palin and Jindal by double-digits in Louisiana?

Nobody predicted a 20 point thrashing in LA.

Josh Putnam said...

What about the fact that Obama is beating all four Republicans in the South? I can understand the approval thing, but this seems counterintuitive. The president does better in the South against Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney than he does in the midwest and west.

Is a shade under 200 respondents too few to draw a representative conclusion for the South. The subsamples in the other regions are even smaller. Just curious. Thanks.

Alex said...

I agree with Josh.
Obama`s pocicy priorities are targeted at South.

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