Thursday, July 9, 2009

Minnesota Preview

Tomorrow we're releasing a poll looking at how Minnesota voters view Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty and how Obama does in a head to head against the Republicans.

There is some good news for Republicans in the numbers, but here are a couple key points:

-Only 6% of respondents who say they approve of Obama's job performance indicated they would support Pawlenty against him- not much of a 'home field' advantage for the state's Governor.

-As for Palin, well, all I can say is Goldwater.


Anonymous said...


You calling Goldwater already?

If Pawlenty is only winning 6% of those who approve of Obama's performance, how much really worse is Palin in the matchup against Obama?

Anonymous said...

I would say it would be.
Obama 53-46 over Pawlenty
Obama 61-38 over Palin.
Minnesota is still a Democratic state. Obama has a 59% approval rating in Minnesota. If Obama loses Minnesota in 2012 he would lose the election. So it is not an important state.

Brandon said...

I agree with "Anonymous." We're three years out . . . haven't we all seen enough polls to know that past candidates have had similar numbers, yet became quite competitive when they actually ran. Gallup recently compared Palin's numbers to Clinton's numbers back in 2003; about 40-42% of voters said they were "not at all likely" to vote for Clinton. I know the circumstances were different (Clinton didn't actually run until 5 yrs later), but I certainly think it's premature to compare Palin to Goldwater at this point. Besides, Palin's PERHAPS good for at least 43% of the vote according to the recent Gallup poll, which is better than Goldwater's 38%. And lastly, hasn't Minnesota voted Democratic for the last 40 years/10 straight elections (save one), and just give the Democrats a 54-43% victory in November? What would be so shocking about a Democratic thumping in Minnesota in '12 (besides the fact that history has proven the GOP doesn't need Minnesota to win elections)?

But anyway, bottom line: I think the Goldwater comparison is premature at this point. I can understand one making that comparison if the poll resuls show Palin in the neighborhood of the actual 64-36% margin that Goldwater lost Minnesota by in '68, but even if it is that damaging, lots can happen in 3.5 years.

Anonymous said...

Are you going to do more of the swing states in regards to Palin. Ohio,Virginia or Florida.

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