Thursday, October 15, 2009

Few voters changing sides from 2008

I've gotten some right wing tirades because I told The Hill for a story yesterday that there were very few people who voted Democratic last year changing sides and that the problem for the party this year was largely one of complacency and comparative motivation.

In New Jersey 71% of people who voted for John McCain are planning to vote for Chris Christie and 70% who voted for Barack Obama are supporting Jon Corzine. There is no meaningful difference in the percentage of their party's voters from last year that the two major party candidates are holding onto.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Bob McDonnell is winning 8% of Obama's voters while Creigh Deeds is taking 7% of John McCain's voters.

Republicans are winning these races not because they're winning anyone over, but because they're planning to vote at a much higher rate than Democrats this year. The truth is if the same set of voters who showed up in 2008 showed up next month Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine would both win. But of course that's not going to happen.

This fact doesn't make the potential GOP victories any less valid, and I think they may well be a harbinger of next year's elections. But they say very little about 2012 because if Barack Obama was at the top of the ballot Democrats wouldn't be having these turnout issues.

It also means that if Corzine and/or Deeds can somehow close the enthusiasm gap in the final three weeks of the campaign Democrats might not lose both of these races.


Anonymous said...

This has to be the dumbest post I have seen. Obviously, if the same people that voted in 2008 voted in 2009 then the Dems would win. The fact of the matter is that now the independents have shifted in both of these cases to the Republicans, and Republicans have the intensity on their side. Both of these races will be close, but this is no longer 2008!!

Anonymous said...

2012 will be vastly different than 2008. Luke-warm Republicans stayed home because John McCain was a horrible candidate. Had Sarah Palin not been on the ticket, the core base would've stayed home as well.

Anonymous said...


KEEP TALKING..Bullshit !

Anonymous said...

How will you manipuilate the numbers when things don't go your way. Public Policy polling has demonstrated repeatedly that they either over sample democrats or discount results which do not fit their preconceived notions. Their data is not to be trusted.

Anonymous said...

If you want more accurate and believeable poll infor go to Polling Pount. com. Public Policy polling is in the tank for the Big O

Anonymous said...

I don't think you political pundits in the east(elitists really) understand the amount of frustration and discontent there is out here in the "REAL" world. We don't want someone who will try to placate us with pretty words and stupid policies. We want to see someone suggest some common sense solutions. Something that is sorely lacking in Washington and surrounding areas. Just because you have an Ivy League degree doesn't mean you are intelligent.

livfreeordi said...

This post has be one of the stupidest posts, I've ever read.

Hey genius.. ever stop to think that people change their minds?

Independent voters, in particular, have been shown in poll after poll.. to have become increasingly disenchanted with Obama, his agenda, and the Democrat Congress.

Many people were unhappy with Bush and the GOP last year..and Democrats misinterpretd the election results as a desire for radical LEFT-WING change!

Ever stop to think that many voters sat the lection out last years..or were unhappy with Bush and the GOP because they weren't CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH!

Anonymous said...

Mr. Jensen your reasoning and what you infer is beyond stupid. Dumb Dumb Dumb! Have your acutally read what you written?
Voters changed their minds because they don't like the direction of the country, be that Obama or his policies, either way - these elections will speak to that. Get a clue, political intellecutals and pundits need not apply...We the American people, as much as the media tries to dumb down the conservatives, - see & hear what's going on and we too can read between the lines.

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