Thursday, October 2, 2008

Michigan Poll

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 41

Barack Obama has opened up a ten point lead in Michigan after leading by just a single point right on the heels of the Republican convention.

The two main factors driving Obama's increased success seem to be the economy and Sarah Palin. 69% of Michigan voters, higher than in any other competitive state PPP has polled, list the economy as their top issue. Obama has a 54-37 lead with those respondents.

Sarah Palin has also seen her popularity declined rapidly. Right after the convention 45% of Michiganians said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain while 35% said it made them less likely to do so. Now just 39% say her place on the ticket makes them more inclined to vote for McCain as the number saying she hurts him has increased to 43%. That's a 14 point downward move in her net popularity over the last three weeks.

The overall impact of this has been:

-A 17 point gain for Obama with female voters, from a three point lead to a 20 point lead.
-A significant shoring up of the Democratic base. Where before he led 81-14 with voters of his own party, now it's 89-6. Not much doubt at this point that Hillary's supporters have come home.
-A tightening of the race with white voters. What was a 16 point lead for McCain is now just three.

Carl Levin continues to cruise for reelection to the Senate, leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 50-32.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Hooray! Go Michigan!

Anonymous said...

McCain has pulled out of Michigan according to

jr1886 said...

Your poll just make MCCain pull out of the state.

Anonymous said...

Can we PLEASE get a poll of New Hampshire the next time Colorado is polled?

Anonymous said...

How about polling Nevada now that Michigan is off the table?

Tom Jensen said...

I do believe we will poll Nevada next week.

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