Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Race for Governor: All about Region

Bev Perdue 47
Pat McCrory 44
Michael Munger 5

Bev Perdue's campaign has made a clear calculus that they're willing to tick off Charlotte voters if it allows them to rack up the kind of margins they need to win in eastern North Carolina. Right now it seems to be working.

One of the biggest things that has kept Perdue from running away with this race is that Pat McCrory has consistently shown a huge lead in the polls in greater Charlotte, including major in roads with white Democrats, that Perdue has not been able to match in her home base of eastern North Carolina. Perdue has worked hard to shore up her support in Charlotte, but McCrory has consistently led the polls there by double digits.

So about two weeks ago it seems Perdue's campaign became heavily focused on the east. First she started running effective ads on Yankee trash, an issue that hits home much harder east of I-95 than it does anywhere else. Her newest set of ads attack McCrory for a Charlotte first mentality: if there was no inherent anti-Charlotte bias with voters outside the state of Mecklenburg, it seems, the Perdue campaign is trying to create one.

How's it all working? In the two polls before this new strategy Perdue led by an average of 48-42 in eastern North Carolina. In the two polls since her average lead is up to 54-38, including a new high of 56-36 in this week's poll. We project eastern North Carolinians to cast around 28-30% of the vote for Governor, so a ten point increase in her lead in that region gives her an extra three points statewide. That's huge in a tight race.

Of course folks in Charlotte aren't necessarily thrilled with Perdue's strategy. In the two polls before she started actively courting the east she trailed by an average of 52-41 there. In the last two she trails by an average of 53-39, with her 53-36 deficit this week the largest she's shown in Charlotte in a long time. So she's lost 3-4 points in a region of the state that will cast about 20% of the vote. That costs her a point statewide.

Forsaking a point in Charlotte to pick up three in the east? Could make the difference in a close race.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Public Policy Polling is owned by Democrats and Civitis is owned by Republicans. Polls are BS propaganda intended to influence how you vote. Make up your own mind and ignore what various polls are telling you the herd is doing. Don't be a sheep think for yourselves.

Anonymous said...

You want to know why Eastern NC hates McCrory? Remember a little thing called Hurricane Floyd? When eastern NC was under water and truly suffering a major crisis, McCrory traveled in a private corporate jet to the legislature DEMANDING money for his basketball arena (mind you, the citizens of Charlotte were even against it!) He marched into the General Assembly, threw his temper tantrum and walked out.

Anonymous said...

My question is why McCrory in particular and most all Republicans are polling so poorly in your Area Code 919 sample while doing decidedly better in the rest of the state? I would have thought that voters in the 919 Area Code were more aware of the "status quo" issues and overall a better educated pool of voters. So what's the deal, Tom?

Anonymous said...

Tom –

I usually respect your analysis but I think you are off the mark on this one.

First of all, while Pat McCrory has a long track record of pitting one part of the state against another, Bev Perdue knows the North Carolina is only at its best when all 100 counties are moving forward together.

Additionally, Bev has long track record of supporting issues important to Charlotte, has been there at least a dozen times in recent weeks (including today), has a campaign office in Charlotte with full-time staff, and has promised to open a Governor’s office in Charlotte. Her son Garrett has even been working out of Charlotte full time for the last few weeks of the campaign.

On top of that, Bev is proud to have the support of a majority of the Charlotte Council – the people who work directly with Pat McCrory. They recognize that Bev is the candidate with the leadership and vision to move North Carolina forward as one state.

David Kochman
Bev Perdue Campaign

Anonymous said...

Pat received a $1,000 check from aguy in Nj that is associated with a landfill company. Your Perdue received a $4,000 check from someone else with similar associations. So can I say that Perdue is the TRASH Queen?

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