Wednesday, January 30, 2008

New York results

Hillary Clinton 45
Barack Obama 33
John Edwards 10

Obama is closing in a little on Clinton in New York. Most recent polling had shown her over 50% in the state she represents in the Senate. The key finding here is that he gets only 44% of the black vote in the state. That leaves plenty of room to improve between now and next Tuesday's primary, and if he can do that and pick up the majority of the support John Edwards had exhibited in the state, New York could be much more closely contested than might have been anticipated.

The gender gap is back in New York after not being as much a part of the equation in South Carolina. Clinton leads by 21 points among women but just 2 with men.

John McCain 34
Rudy Giuliani 20
Mitt Romney 19
Mike Huckabee 10
Ron Paul 4

Even before Rudy Giuliani decided to drop out of the race for President he was getting beat badly by John McCain in his own state. New York Republicans care most about Iraq and the economy and give their highest level of support to McCain on both those issues.

It is unclear where Giuliani's supporters will go, but they would have to support Romney in large numbers to put much of a dent in McCain's chances of taking the state.

Full results here.

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