Tuesday, January 8, 2008

New Hampshire predictions

So I got this email from my dad yesterday about my Iowa predictions:
I meant to tell you that your Iowa projections sucked. You were right in your blog however when you said you could be totally wrong.
Thanks Dad. Of course he's right. They were pretty wrong. But here goes for New Hampshire:

Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 27
John Edwards 25

I think it will be closer between Clinton and Edwards than the polls are reflecting but that Obama will dominate.

John McCain 38
Mitt Romney 26
Mike Huckabee 19

Huckabee will get more of a kick from Iowa than the polls have been showing, and McCain will handle Romney easily. The Romney spin will be that he's the only candidate who finished in the top two on the GOP side in both Iowa and New Hampshire. No one will buy it.

Now Justin Guillory's picks last week were, um, slightly better than mine in the sense that they were actually correct.

Here are his this time around:

Obama 45
Clinton 32
Edwards 20

McCain 35
Romney 26
Huckabee 13

And for the record I'll state that while Justin won the Poli 170 Iowa prediction contest four years ago at Carolina, he didn't fare so well in New Hampshire.

We will see!

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