Friday, July 11, 2008

Coming next week...

In addition to the Richard Burr approval poll mentioned below we'll have new polls in South Carolina and Colorado.

We polled South Carolina because it's next door, some polling has shown the race close, and we're interested to see if Obama really has any chance there. If we find the answer is no we probably won't poll it again.

We also looked at Lindsey Graham's reelection chances and whether an independent candidacy from former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, running to his right, could give him any trouble. The simple answer based on our interviews so far is no. Finally, we looked ahead to the 2010 race for Governor, polling Democrats Jim Rex and Inez Tenenbaum against Republicans Henry McMaster and Gresham Barrett.

In Colorado we'll have new numbers for President and Senate, as well as a look at whether it would take a Hail Mary (or something less) to give Ken Salazar trouble for reelection next time around.

We're aiming for Colorado Monday and South Carolina Tuesday, but that's subject to change.


Rasmus said...

Hey, I would have had three requests for you- South Carolina, Colorado and Delaware. Interestingly two of your new "targets" fit my request.
South Carolina could be close with Obamas strength in states like GA and NC, Colorado is a battleground state where it would be good to hear PPP´s opinion in comparison to Quinnipac and Rasmussen (I don´t count Zogby Interactive).

But Delaware is a state where Kerry had a margin of victory of about the same size as in New Jersey- and at least in the moment and in the opinion of Rasmussen, which is I think a solid pollster NJ seems to be close, even if I don´t think that will hold on.

The Exit Poll data from 2004 says us that Kerry and Bush did both an about similar good job holding their base, and split Independents- there were just more Democrats. Given the fact that Delaware had a close democratic primary, Obama does not such a good job holding his base in the moment, while New England loves McCain, couldn´t that bring mcCain some points closer?

On the other hand, Kerry won the Black Vote only 82-17 (losing the white vote 45-55), where Obama might do a better job. And the percentage of Black Democratic Primary voters increased from 16% to 28%. Would love to see a poll from there.

Anonymous said...

Any hints on what the results were?

Anonymous said...

I bet we see an uptick in McCain's favor as recent national polls have drifted in his favor (though may be shortlived).

for this very reason (shortlived bump), I would encourage PPP to continue polling SC even if we see a larger McCain lead

p smith said...


Given that the nation's pollsters seem to have gone on an extended July 4 break, your Colorado poll today will be very welcome. Though presumably within minutes of your release, SurveyUSA or ARG will piss all over your parade with their own Colorado polls.

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