Wednesday, July 9, 2008

O the irony

We did a Missouri poll because people were complaining that there weren't enough Missouri polls. Now I see about five minutes after we finished releasing ours that Rasmussen put one out this afternoon too.

I'll go ahead and announce that we're doing South Carolina and Colorado this week, with one most likely released Monday and the other released Tuesday. If all of our peers could give some rough idea of their schedule we might be able to avoid this sort of thing!


Blissfully Ignorant said...

This isn't a bad thing. In a way it confirms the validity of both polls. Most people say yall skew toward Ds and Rasmussen towards Rs.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I agree that it's a good thing. Both of your MO results for Prez and Gov seems to line up pretty well... gives both of your results more credibility. Nice job.

Anonymous said...

did you even bother to poll st. louis? i bet there are a lot of people there .

Tom Jensen said...

Is there something about the results that would make you think we didn't poll St. Louis?

Anonymous said...

Hi Tom,

In the futur, it's possible to look Nevada?

There are one news about Nevada yesterday.

Now Democrats lead in voter registration by 55.560 voters. It's 5% edge over Republicans.(1.031.000 voters in total)

In 2004, Republicans had 1% edge

Kerry lost by only 21.000 votes and Nevada will be very very close i think.

Anonymous said...

2 states that I think should be polled:

ND - SUSA had a poll showing Obama ahead a few months ago, but there's been pretty much nothing since.

WV - McCain was running advertising here late in the primary season, and Rasmussen had Obama down only 8 before Clinton left the race - the post-primary bump could have made this a close race

Anonymous said...


Now that Q2 Senate fundraising is in, will we be getting the Burr numbers soon?

Anonymous said...

Scratch my request for ND above

Rasmussen just confirmed the close race there.

Rasmus said...

Hey, I would have had three requests for you- South Carolina, Colorado and Delaware. Interestingly two of your new "targets" fit my request.
South Carolina could be close with Obamas strength in states like GA and NC, Colorado is a battleground state where it would be good to hear PPP´s opinion in comparison to Quinnipac and Rasmussen (I don´t count Zogby Interactive).

But Delaware is a state where Kerry had a margin of victory of about the same size as in New Jersey- and at least in the moment and in the opinion of Rasmussen, which is I think a solid pollster NJ seems to be close, even if I don´t think that will hold on.

The Exit Poll data from 2004 says us that Kerry and Bush did both an about similar good job holding their base, and split Independents- there were just more Democrats. Given the fact that Delaware had a close democratic primary, Obama does not such a good job holding his base in the moment, while New England loves McCain, couldn´t that bring mcCain some points closer?

On the other hand, Kerry won the Black Vote only 82-17 (losing the white vote 45-55), where Obama might do a better job. And the percentage of Black Democratic Primary voters increased from 16% to 28%. Would love to see a poll from there.

Anonymous said...

I disagree with you Tom. I like it when multiple polling outfits release polls for the same state at roughly the same time because it gives people a way to compare results from different polling companies and helps determine whether a poll is an outlier or not.

It also helps determine whether a polling outfit consistently favors one party or the other in their results, which can be taken into account when they release results. If a polling company consistently releases results that seem to be favored toward one party, people can incorporate this into how they view the results.

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