Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Missouri President

John McCain 47
Barack Obama 44

Missouri appears to be a tossup in the Presidential race for this fall, with John McCain holding a slight lead over Barack Obama at this point.

The good news for Obama and other Democrats in the state is that Democratic party id has surpassed that for Republicans in the state. When PPP last polled Missouri, during its hotly contested 2006 Senate race, Republicans had a 40-39 party id advantage. While the Democrats have remained constant since then, Republican self identifiers have dropped 6%, with a commensurate increase in independents.

The bad news is that Obama is not doing as good a job holding onto the folks who identify with his party as McCain is. While McCain has an 85-10 lead with Republicans, Obama is up 77-15 among Democrats. There's also an indication that while some former Republicans might identify themselves as independent now, they're still supporting the GOP's candidate for President- McCain leads 46-38 among them.

Missouri will certainly be a state to watch over the next four months.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

well, Bill Clinton won Missouri twice by very solid margins. It absolutely IS a winnable state for a Democrat.

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