Tuesday, July 29, 2008

North Carolina Senate

Elizabeth Dole 49
Kay Hagan 40
Christopher Cole 4

Kay Hagan narrowed the race to five points when she was on the air and Elizabeth Dole wasn't, and Dole built the lead back up to 14 points when she was on the air and Hagan wasn't. Now with neither of them spending much money the race has stabilized at a nine point Dole lead, which seems like a reasonable baseline as the general election campaign really commences.

One problem for Hagan is one that plagued Erskine Bowles against Dole in 2002. Dole polls unusually well for a Republican among black voters, trailing just 63-25 in this particular survey. Hagan will have a hard time defeating Dole unless she gets at least 80% of the black vote.

This race took on a completely different tenor in recent days with the news that the DSCC plans to make a large investment in this race. If Hagan is able to get black voters to choose her at the same rate they do most Democrats, and that money is put to good use this race could tighten again in the fall.

Full results here.

1 comment:

willis said...

Tom, where are you getting the data showing Bowles under performing among AA's in 2002 or 2004?

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