Thursday, March 5, 2009

Deeds' Difficulty

In the parts of the state outside Hampton Roads, metro Richmond, and the suburban part of northern Virginia- the 276, 434, and 540 area codes- Creigh Deeds is dominating the Democratic race for Governor. He's getting 27% compared to 14% for Terry McAuliffe and only 5% for Brian Moran.

Geographically that's most of the state. But the problem for Deeds is that it's only 30% of the votes in the Democratic primary. And in the more urbanized and blue leaning sections of the state that are likely to include 70% of the electorate in June he's only at 8%, trailing McAuliffe at 25% and Moran at 24% by a significant amount.

It's not necessarily an issue for Deeds that voters in the most populated parts of the state don't like him so much as it is that they don't know him. While McAuliffe has 58% name recognition and Moran has 50% name recognition in the urban areas, Deeds' is only 32%. His ability to change that in the next few months will be vital to keep him from ending up with 'also ran' status while McAuliffe and Moran duke it out for the nomination.

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