Monday, March 16, 2009

Sleeper Senate Races

I don't think anyone six months ago really expected the Senate contests in Connecticut and Delaware for 2010 to look competitive at this point in the game, but our poll last week showed Mike Castle might start out as a small favorite if he got in the race and it appears Rob Simmons is in in Connecticut following a Quinnipiac survey last week showing him with a narrow advantage.

There are races in every cycle that end up being a lot more competitive than anyone might have initially expected, like North Carolina and Alaska last year and Virginia in 2006.

I've already argued based on our polling in the late fall that Johnny Isakson could be vulnerable to a strong challenger, but here's my question: what other Senate seats up next year that haven't received any polling or attention might be competitive that people aren't talking about? We'll try to poll some of those places in the next few months and figure out if there's anything there or not.


Brandon K said...

Blanche Lincoln maybe? Arkansas was one of the few states to move Republican in 2008.

Rasmus said...

Russ Feingold? He had a phase in late 2008 where his net approval rating was just barely in the positives according to SUSA, and Wisconsin was a purple state not too long ago. And I have yet to see an analysis that sees him in danger.

Anonymous said...

Brandon, I really can't imagine Lincoln vulnerable: Arkansas is probably one of the 3-4 most Democratic states in the country at the local level. (Democrats have ALL congressional delegation, which is 6 people; plus Governor; plus SUPERmajorities in both chambers of state legislature.)

I'd say Grassley, Feingold, Murray could be interesting targets if good recruits step up.

Rasmus said...

Well, she's vulnerable if Huckabee runs. He hasn't indicated that he thinks about a run though- no exploratory commitee, he has a new talk show on TV and I guess he'll try to run for the White House again 2012.

Rasmus said...

And Grassley- I think he could have been vulnerable against Vilsack, but since this obviously won't happen, he's safe.
Murray is interesting though.

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