Monday, March 23, 2009

Interesting Analysis from SSP

I pointed out in January that even though Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry got reelected by large margins last fall, they actually each under ran John McCain within their districts, something I felt was an indication Daniel Johnson and Roy Carter ran very strong campaigns even in defeat.

The good folks at Swing State Project took this analysis a step further and did it for the whole country, and I'd say the results are pretty interesting.

There were actually only 23 Republican members of the House in the country who did worse than John McCain within their districts. McHenry's performance relative to the party nominee was the sixth worst of any member of the GOP caucus.

That has a lot to do with what what a top notch challenger Johnson was for that district, but I think it also has some serious implications for McHenry's political future. Some have suggested him as a possible challenger to Kay Hagan in 2014 but it's hard to see how he would be a good candidate statewide when he underperforms in the swath of the state he already represents.

All that said the fact that Carter and Johnson were such strong candidates and still got creamed is a pretty clear indication these districts are completely unwinnable for Democrats in their current configuration. I think Democrats have probably maxed out the number of House seats they can win in North Carolina, but if there's another prospect it's Sue Myrick's district, not either of these.

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