Thursday, March 26, 2009

Who Lincoln needs to win over

Yesterday we showed approval ratings for Blanche Lincoln that left a little bit to be desired.

One thing holding her back right now is that interestingly, 26% of the people in the state who approve of Barack Obama's job performance either disapprove of Lincoln's or have no opinion about it. You wouldn't necessarily expect that in a place where the President fared poorly last fall and Lincoln has twice been elected to statewide office. That group of voters is 34% African American- more than twice the black percentage of the population- so that may be a constituency she needs to shore up her support with a little bit.

Another group she could use some help with is the 11% of voters who have a positive opinion of both Mike Beebe and Mark Pryor but not of her. That group is overwhelmingly white and disproportionately over 65. It is pretty diverse politically, with 37% of them identifying as Democrats, 32% as Republicans, and 31% as independents. Beebe will certainly be a strong vote getter at the top of the ticket next year and the more Lincoln can align herself with him the better off she's going to be.

I think Lincoln as a Senator is going to end up being like Mary Landrieu next door- someone who the Republicans think they have a chance of taking out every cycle, but who manages to just keep on surviving.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I agree with both of the above post.

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