Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Not much movement in Virginia

Terry McAuliffe 21
Brian Moran 19
Creigh Deeds 14

The big winner in the Virginia Democratic primary for Governor continues to be 'undecided.' 46% of voters have not made their minds up, down slightly from 53% in PPP's first monthly tracking poll of the race.

Last month McAuliffe and Moran were tied at 18% with Deeds further back at 11%. The basic contour of the race has not changed much over the last four weeks with McAuliffe and Deeds each picking up an additional three points and Moran gaining by one.

Helping McAuliffe to his small lead is holding the advantage among black voters, 26-16 over Moran. He has led with that demographic in both of our polls. He is particularly weak though with independent voters, carrying 11%, well behind both Deeds and Moran. He was similarly week in that demographic a month ago, carrying only 9%.

Moran and Deeds have the best net favorability ratings of the trio, each at +16. Moran is the more well known at 30/14 and Deeds' numbers are 26/10. McAuliffe has both the highest positives and negatives of the field, at 31/24. He's the only candidate that more than half of the likely primary electorate has developed an opinion of.

There's not going to be a lot of movement in this contest until the candidates start really ratcheting up their ad buys.

Full results here.

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