Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Breaking down the races: Dem Senate

We got some flack from supporters of Jim Neal in March and April when we were consistently showing Hagan with a double digit lead and Neal in the single digits. Given that 60% were undecided at that point and Neal only ended up with 18% I'm pretty sure we were right the whole time.

Hagan ended up winning 94 out of 100 counties. Neal won McDowell and Yancey counties, and Marcus Williams won Robeson, Bertie, and Hertford. Gates County ended up dead even between Hagan and Williams.

Hagan beat Neal more than 2:1 in every county except Buncombe, Camden, Cherokee, Clay, Currituck, Gates, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Mitchell, Orange, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Polk, Rutherford, Scotland, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, and the counties mentioned above.

What almost all of those counties have in common is that they are in tv markets that are not cost effective to advertise in. Most of the Asheville market is in Upstate South Carolina. The northeastern counties on this list are in the Norfolk tv market. I'm guessing Hagan did little or no advertising on the stations in those markets.


Anonymous said...

Okay, Tom, the self-adulation is getting a little tiresome.

Tom Jensen said...

Since a Neal supporter came on this blog in March and essentially accused us of being unethical for not showing him doing better in the polls, it seems perfectly reasonable to revisit what the actual case may have been at that time.

That said, I appreciate you making this comment under your recognizable internet identity. Most people don't do that.

Anonymous said...

Tom, congrats on Survey USA's acknowledgment of your accuracy. I'm sure it is especially sweet after you were raked over the coals at BlueNC for missing PA. You folks have done an excellent job. I've always enjoyed your polls and have started reading your analysis after I do a bit of my own.

Thanks for making them accessible.

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