Monday, May 5, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: President

Barack Obama 53
Hillary Clinton 43

At the end of the day North Carolina's demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here. We estimate that 35% of the primary electorate will be black, and with Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11, Clinton's 60-34 advantage with white voters is only enough to pull his lead down to ten.

The projected percentage of the black electorate is an important factor in explaining different results from different polls. I explain how we arrived at our projection here.

Obama did extremely well during early voting in the state, where black turnout pushed up on 40%. His lead in the polls is 63-34 among those who say they have already voted. The race is a virtual tie among those who plan to vote on election day- Obama leads just 47-45 with those folks.

Obama leads with every age demographic except senior citizens and has the advantage in every region of the state except the Mountains.

Full results here.

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