Friday, May 23, 2008

Civitas Polls

Our friends at Civitas have released their latest numbers for Governor, Senate, and President.

The Presidential numbers are pretty darn good for Barack Obama. He's trailing 44-39, but that's the best he's done of the three times Civitas has polled his match up with McCain- he trailed by nine and ten points in the previous two polls.

Beyond that, 20% of Democrats are undecided compared to just 12% of Republicans. I'm guessing that's a product of a lot of Hillary supporters who will eventually support Obama but aren't there yet. Assume that 80% of the undecided Dems go for Obama and 80% of the undecided Reps go for McCain, and you end up with McCain up about one point.

As I've said repeatedly, I don't know that Obama will win North Carolina, but I think it's going to be the most competitive it's been here at least since 1996 and possibly since 1992.

The Senate poll shows Elizabeth Dole with 45% and Kay Hagan with 43%, just another piece of confirmation that this race is tighter than anyone expected at this point. Hagan's actually leading by twelve points with unaffiliated voters for her, but 23% of Democratic votes are leeching to Dole. If Hagan can get those folks back in the fold it's going to be very interesting.

For Governor they have Bev Perdue up 43-42 on Pat McCrory. Seems about right to me.

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