Tuesday, May 13, 2008

General Election: Council of State


Beth Wood 41
Les Merritt 32

To me this was by far the most interesting result of our polling in the down ballot races. The Democratic challenger starts with a large lead over the Republican incumbent.

How to explain it? Well many folks speculated in 2004 that Merritt knocked off Ralph Campbell because his name was on the ballot as Leslie Merritt, and voters have a propensity for female candidates. I didn't lend that theory much credence, but we called him Les Merritt in the poll, and he's getting clobbered. Next time we'll switch it to Leslie Merritt and see what difference it makes. One thing's for sure- Wood cleaned up on the female vote with a 47-25 advantage.

Lieutenant Governor:

Walter Dalton 43
Robert Pittenger 40

Both candidates have a lot of resources, which should make it a close race.


Bill Daughtridge 38
Janet Cowell 37

The 252 area code tends to be Democratic territory but it's also Daughtridge's home ground and for now he's carrying it 42-39 even as every other statewide Democrat has a double digit lead there. That's helping to balance out Cowell's female advantage.

Attorney General:

Roy Cooper 47
Bob Crumley 34

Secretary of State:

Elaine Marshall 48
Jack Sawyer 32

If there are two members of the Council of State who are pretty sure to be reelected it's Cooper and Marshall, who have both been in office a long time and are quite popular.


June Atkinson 42
Richard Morgan 36

Agriculture Commissioner:

Steve Troxler 42
Ronnie Ansley 34

Troxler is getting more crossover support than any Republican besides McCrory. He's done things to ingratiate himself to Democrats over the course of his term, such as being one of the first major Republicans in the state to come out against the OLF.

Insurance Commissioner:

Wayne Goodwin 40
John Odom 33

The Democrat starts with the lead in this open seat contest.

Full results here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


If your numbers are accurate, and I'm sure they are, then Elaine Marshall can't even capture 50% in your recent poll! How can you say that her seat is safe? If anything, I think that makes for an interesting election, provided that Jack Sawyer can come up with any sort of organization.

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