Tuesday, May 20, 2008

SurveyUSA does NC: Governor and Senate

Our good friends at SurveyUSA have their first North Carolina general election poll out. Here's what they found:

-Bev Perdue with a 52-45 lead over Pat McCrory for Governor. So now you have a choice of polls to push whatever story line you want in that race- SUSA has Perdue with the strong advantage, we have it dead even, Rasmussen has McCrory with the strong advantage.

Some of the key things in the crosstabs? McCrory needs moderate votes to win and right now he's not getting them. Perdue leads 57-39 with voters who describe themselves as such. Perdue pulls 23% of voters who describe themselves as conservatives, while McCrory is at 20% with self described liberals.

Perdue also has a 49-41 lead with independents, a result at odds with our survey from a few weeks ago. I really have no idea who's right on that front. Full results here.

-Elizabeth Dole leads Kay Hagan 50-46, an indication that a) this race really has tightened and b) even two weeks after Hagan's primary ads went off the air, she's still keeping it competitive.

The big issue for Hagan may be keeping her voters in the party. While only 9% of Republicans cross over to support her, 23% of Democrats say they're voting for Dole. Dole has a 56-38 advantage with independent voters.

What I want to know is why 27% of self described liberals support Dole. Come on people! This is one of the races that Democrats need to win to get to 60 votes in the Senate, and if you want a progressive agenda enacted that sure would be helpful.

One piece of good news for Hagan though- she's actually got a 49-48 lead with the voters whose minds are made up. Dole has the resounding 63-32 edge with the 18% who could change their mind. I'm guessing those are voters who know Dole but don't know Hagan. If Hagan can convince those voters to like her- or not to like Dole- she has a decent chance. Full results here.


Anonymous said...

What do you make of the Presidential numbers - Clinton beating McCain but Obama losing? They seem so out of line with what we've seen so recently in N.C.

Anonymous said...

Way to GO, guys!! Congratulations on your Oregon projection!

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