Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Survey USA: NC President

Survey USA has very interesting new numbers out on the Presidential race, showing Hillary Clinton leading John McCain 49-43, but McCain leading Barack Obama 51-43.

Why the disparity? Here are some of the key reasons:

-Women. That's the main difference. Clinton leads 56-37 with them, while Obama trails 47-46 with them in possible matches against McCain.

-28% of Democrats support McCain against Obama, while just 17% support McCain against Clinton. You have to wonder if that's a product of residual bad feelings from the primary, and whether a lot of those Democrats will end up moving back toward Obama once he is officially the party's standard bearer.

-Perhaps a little more troublesome for Obama is that he trails McCain 50-41 with independents, while Clinton leads with them 46-41.

-Senior citizens. Clinton has a 12 point lead, Obama has a 12 point deficit.

Although I am surprised that there is quite this large a disparity between Obama's standing and Clinton's, there is nothing in Survey USA's weightings that particularly jumps out at me as off. Obviously general election polling will be much more meaningful once the match up is really set.

One thing for sure though- even an 8 point deficit for Obama is much better than John Kerry and Al Gore did in the state- it should be a good year for Democrats in North Carolina.

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