Monday, March 3, 2008

Previewing the Tracking Poll

If the technology Gods cooperate I'll get this month's North Carolina tracking poll done tonight with Republicans released tomorrow and Democrats released Wednesday.

Here's what I'll be watching for:

-Civitas showed Richard Moore getting a lot closer to Bev Perdue and Fred Smith getting a lot closer to Pat McCrory last week. Outlier or trend?

-Jim Neal has only been polling at single digits in our poll the last few months but Survey USA had him within a point of Kay Hagan three weeks ago and Neal has been running a much more active campaign than Hagan. Will he pull closer in our poll?

-Wayne Goodwin in the Insurance Commissioner race and John Brooks in the Labor Commissioner race have each run statewide before. Will that give them the advantage in our first poll of their races?

-Elizabeth Dole has a relatively anonymous primary challenger. How many Republicans out there are frustrated enough with her to support a no name?

-There are two new Republican candidates for Lieutenant Governor, both of whom ran last time. Will name recognition vault them over Robert Pittenger and Greg Dority?

-Richard Morgan is certainly the most well known of the Republican candidates for Superintendent but in many Republican circles that is not a good thing. Will he start out with a lead?

-And will the percentage of undecideds in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor race ever go below 60%?

Stay tuned for answers to these questions and more in the next couple days.

1 comment:

Joel Raupe said...

I'm looking forward to what you discover tonight, as always.

While comparing what Civitas saw and what you find, tonight and tomorrow, I hope you'll mention Civitas' "Professor Emeritus" Kack Hawke was quick to point out, at Fenruary's Decision Maker poll luncheon, that their results reflected "older voters, as always, weighing their sample," and more importantly "General Election voters," and not necessarily primary voters.

Keep up the great work.

Joel Raupe
Administrative Assistant
Office of Repubican Leader
Rep. Paul Stam
NC House of Representatives

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