Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Republican Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff

Lieutenant Governor:

Greg Dority 15
Jim Snyder 12
Robert Pittenger 12
Timothy Cook 5

Here's the deal with the Republican race for Lieutenant Governor. Pittenger has all the money. So he's likely to win the race when he spends it over the next two months. The only way he wouldn't is if he had a huge name recognition gap because Snyder and Cook have run for the office before that his money couldn't take care of. This poll shows that Cook is in last and that Snyder, despite having run for the Senate in 2002 and having been the Republican nominee for this office in 2004, is at only 12%. So Pittenger is in good shape.

Beyond that it's a regional contest. Pittenger leads Charlotte where he's from, Snyder leads the Triad where he's from, and Dority leads eastern North Carolina where he's from. Dority is winning the other three regions which is why he has the overall lead but I imagine that's a pretty tenuous edge.


Richard Morgan 16
Joe Johnson 12
Eric Smith 8

The former House Speaker starts off with a small lead. It's probably telling that he does best in the Triangle where his name would have been in the paper the most during his time in power. He also does well in southeastern North Carolina where he lives. Beyond those regions the contest is pretty much tied.

This race seems likely to come down to whether Art Pope cares enough about who the GOP sacrificial lamb for Superintendent is to try to run a negative campaign against Moore in the primary. If he does, he'll probably take Morgan down just like he put him out of his House seat in 2006. If he doesn't, Morgan may be able to slide by based on name recognition and his political network from earlier in his career.

Full results here

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