Friday, March 21, 2008

Republicans headed to a runoff?

After yesterday's poll showing Pat McCrory and Fred Smith knotted for the lead in the Republican race for Governor, you might assume that means the race is headed to a runoff.

What's interesting though is that McCrory and Smith have separated themselves so much from the rest of the field that if you average out the undecideds in this latest poll they both come awfully close to breaking 40%.

If the undecided folks from this poll voted in the same distribution as those who have made up their mind it would be:

-McCrory 39.7
-Smith 39.7
-Bill Graham 11
-Bob Orr 10

So it wouldn't take much of a movement in either McCrory or Smith's direction to wrap this thing up in May, provided that Graham and Orr don't make a rebound.

Last night I was on with Tara Servatius at WBT in Charlotte and she asked me why I thought Smith was rising. I think it's because conservative voters/voters wary of McCrory for whatever reason have realized that Smith is their only chance of stopping him and that supporting Orr or Graham is relatively futile at this point.

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