Friday, March 14, 2008

Unaffiliateds and the Dem race for Governor

I've seen several media folks this week repeat the statement that Richard Moore does better with unaffiliated voters than Bev Perdue does. It's just not true.

There have been eight public polls so far in 2008 that have broken out the Democratic race by unaffiliateds:

-This week's Survey USA poll showed a 30-27 Perdue advantage with them.
-Our March poll showed Perdue leading them 40-24
-The February Civitas poll showed Perdue leading 23-22.
-The February Survey USA poll had Perdue leading 44-33 with them.
-Our February poll gave Moore a 40-37 edge.
-In January Civitas showed a 29-20 Perdue lead.
-The January Survey USA poll showed Moore leading 42-37 with them.
-Perdue had a 37-20 lead in our January poll.

Does Moore do better with unaffiliated voters than he does with Democrats? Yes. Does he do better with unaffiliated voters than Perdue? No. Taking this data overall you would have to say she has a slight advantage, although it is variable from poll to poll due to the overall small number of unaffiliated folks planning to vote in the Democratic primary.

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