Monday, March 24, 2008

Tracking poll: what I'll be watching

We should be conducting our weekly tracking poll today with a release either Tuesday and Wednesday or Wednesday and Thursday. Here's what I'll be watching:

-When we polled the Presidential race last week it was during the heart of the Jeremiah Wright controversy. It will be interesting to see if Barack Obama's speech on race and the passage of a week have allowed him to return to the larger lead he had before things started going wrong for him.

-Richard Moore has been running negative ads against Bev Perdue for five days now. That's probably not a long enough time for them to really make an impact but we'll see if he can reduce her lead to single digits for the first time in a PPP poll since December.

-Fred Smith had tied up Pat McCrory in last week's poll but McCrory's ads seem to be running in a much heavier rotation and there were signs in the survey last week that they were doing him some good even though Smith was rising faster. My guess is McCrory will be back in the lead by himself, although by an amount within the margin of error.

-Our polling of the Democratic Senate race has been remarkably consistent, with Kay Hagan always within a couple points of 20% and Jim Neal always within a couple points of 10%. I don't see any reason this week why that would have changed.

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