Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Survey USA Democratic crosstabs

Two things really struck me in the crosstabs from Survey USA's poll of the Democratic gubernatorial primary yesterday:

-The first is that Richard Moore leads Bev Perdue 45-31 among the respondents who described themselves as conservative. I've never thought of Moore and Perdue as being particularly ideologically distinct, but several people have suggested to me in the last few weeks as Perdue's lead has rocketed up that his poor performance is because he comes across as too conservative for a Democratic primary. These numbers indicate there could be some truth to that since his lead among conservatives is more than offset by his 34 point (54-20) gap with voters who described their ideology as 'liberal.' His new ads focused on progressive issues like the minimum wage and affordable higher education could help alleviate that.

-Perdue leads 52-31 in the Triangle and Triad and 53-16 in eastern North Carolina. But she trails 30-27 in the area encompassing Charlotte and the Mountains. The key difference? It's probably that the candidates have been on tv in the areas where Perdue is leading but not in the area where Moore is leading. The candidates are on the air in Charlotte now so it will be interesting to see in the next poll whether Perdue continues to do much better in places where ads are running, or whether Moore's reinvigorated ad campaign flips that.

Check out the tabs here.

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